The CIA's Man in Cairo Emerges in Egypt Elections

Back in late January, 2011, with the long reign of Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak tottering in the wind, the most electrifying prospect to succeed him was Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei--at least in the eyes of many an outside observer.

Wrong, I wrote after surveying experts on Egypt's partnership with the Clinton and Bush administration's CIA renditions programs: It would be Gen. Omar Suleiman, the chief of Egyptian intelligence -- the CIA's man in Cairo. 

But Suleiman stayed largely in the wings through the downfall of Mubarak, the euphoria of the Arab Spring, and even the evolution of "temporary" military caretakers to a seemingly permanent ruling junta.

Mubarak might've even thought Suleiman could save his reign, by appointing the spy chief vice president as crowds swelled in Tahir Square.

It was not to be. Mubarak was soon gone.

After the euphoria faded, the Muslim Brotherhood emerged as an ominous slate to take over Egypt.

This, for sure, was an unacceptable prospect for the West, and particularly Washington.

Suddenly, on Friday, the former spy chief stepped from the shadows to throw his fez into the race for president.

"Omar Suleiman’s announcement was widely seen as a game changer in the landmark election scheduled for next month," The Washington Post's Ernesto Londono wrote. "The prospect of his return to power would have been laughable a year ago, when he vanished from public view after somberly announcing that the country’s longtime autocratic ruler was stepping down."

"An open question is whether he can count on help from his longtime friends in the CIA," I wrote back in January 2011.

“Ask who they posit as a possible successor,” a State Department expert on the region told me then. “Bet you a beer, the name Omar Suleiman comes up more often than most.”

The Wall Street Journal’s Jerusalem correspondent, Charles Levinson, also saw it coming, I wrote.

In a December 2010 piece, Levinson pronounced Suleiman "the most likely successor ... President Mubarak's closest aide, charged with handling the country's most sensitive issues.

"He also has close working relations with the U.S. and a lifetime of experience inside Egypt's military and intelligence apparatus," Levinson wrote.

Likewise, the Voice of America said on Jan. 28, 2011, “Suleiman is seen by some analysts as a possible successor to the president.”

“He earned international respect for his role as a mediator in Middle East affairs and for curbing Islamic extremism.”

An editorialist at Pakistan’s “International News” also predicted that “Suleiman will probably scupper his boss’s plans [to install his son], even if the aspiring intelligence guru himself is as young as 75.”

Suleiman graduated from Egypt’s prestigious Military Academy but also received training in the Soviet Union.  Under his guidance, Egyptian intelligence has worked hand-in-glove with the CIA’s counterterrorism programs, most notably in the notorious 2003 rendition of an al-Qaeda suspect known as Abu Omar from Italy.

In 2009, Foreign Policy magazine ranked Suleiman one of the Middle East's "most powerful spooks,"  ahead of Mossad chief Meir Dagan.

In an observation that may turn out to be ironic, the magazine wrote, "More than from any other single factor, Suleiman's influence stems from his unswerving loyalty to Mubarak."