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Thursday, January 31, 2013

AQ 2.0: The Limits of Intervention

Bad choices in 2013.

David Ignatius has an interesting piece today on the perilous options for the West in countering the “cancerous” spread of al-Qaeda in places like Mali.

“Striking at these local nodes — as the French are doing now in Mali — can disrupt the new terrorist cells," he writes. "But analysts stress that there will be consequences: The cells may metastasize further, drawing new jihadists into the fight and potentially threatening targets in Europe and the United States.”

Indeed, they’re everywhere, and nowhere, an annoyance that has become a public menace, like small time hoods hoping to become "made men.”


But the U.S. strategy “is similar to the one adopted after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks,” he goes on to say.

“The CIA seeks to build up the security services of regional allies that can help penetrate and disrupt the terrorists in ways that would be impossible for the United States acting alone.”

But the cast of allies has changed since 9/11. The sons of bitches that were our guys in Egypt, Libya and Yemen have been swept away. Monarchies in Jordan and Bahrain are under assault by the same forces that drove the Arab Spring.  Pakistan is an unreliable partner, to say the least. Algeria is keeping us at arms length.

At this point, the CIA could be forgiven for looking longingly at the imminent loss of Syria’s as-Assad, a sometime partner in U.S. counterterrorism operations.

What to do? The Obama administration says its policies are adapting.

“Our CT approach is to do things where possible through our partners, and not necessarily by ourselves,” a senior administration official told Ignatius.

But who are they? Israel? France? Britain? Anybody else? Our African “allies” are pathetic.

It’s getting lonely out there.

3 comments:

Ronald Thomas West said...

I don't care for David Ignatius as a writer of fiction, because he is shallow in geopolitics, particularly when it comes to the USA's [and western democracies generally] responsibility for generating the terror it opposes, not only problems with stamping it out. I read his linked article and see his real world assessment in the same light.

In Libya, if you were not particularly political under Gaddafi, there was a state funded education available, a modicum of women's emancipation that was radical by Arab world standards, and the standard of living was comparable to the American middle class. All of that is gone together with North Africa unhinged and Libya an aggregate of bickering armed camps with a violent future as likely as not. What precipitated the overthrow of the 'rehabilitated' Gaddafi? Sarkozy was disappointed Libya was not buying high end weapons from France, that played a large role, not a lot of gratitude for Gaddafi dismantling Libya's weapons of mass destruction program. Speaking of human rights, was the CIA/MI6 delivery of kidnapped victims [renditioned] to torture in Libya any better than Qaddafi's abuse of the same? Hypocrisy never ceases to astound.

In Syria, the humanitarian disaster fed by the civil war the USA, France and Britain have provided support to, dwarfs any crime Assad had ever perpetrated. Al Qaida linked militia are the most experienced and competent fighters and who armed them? The USA by default, when Patraeus and Bandar Bin Sultan coordinated Saudi Arabia's material support for the 'rebels' and the Salafist fighters ended up with the most weapons and cash. Maybe the real reason Patraeus is out of a job. And now? Syria is a geopolitical nightmare with chemical weapons proliferation risk, weapons spread everywhere, sectarian bloodbaths commencing, a real risk of a jihadist takeover, Russia and Iran getting pulled in, and let's not overlook were the CIA renditions to torture in Syria to come out in the Syrian records [as happened in Libya] I expect Gaddafi would look like a good guy by comparison. But what did the mainstream of ordinary Syrian people do to deserve this aftermath? Probably they are thinking 'god save us from democracy.' it just goes on.

I could write pages about the USA's missteps in Egypt and their darling torturer Omar Suiliman, but you get my point.

How can any of this be construed [by Ignatius] any of this can be a victory for democracy and human rights ?? Democracy will not take root in the region, there is social/cultural foundation. On top of exploiting the region in narcissistic and greedy corporate neo-corporaate colonialism for decades, generating much of the hate morphed into terror by propping up corrupt sheiks. A bit late to be waking up to the devil you knew and could do business with [if only there had been political will] is preferable to the resulting myriad devils that seek to destroy you-

Ronald Thomas West said...

Correction to my previous: 'Democracy will not take root in the region, there is NO social/cultural foundation'

Mark said...

Al Qaeda will not be stopped until the CIA and their counterparts in Europe and Israel are shut down. The CIA created Al Qaeda in the first place. And they control that organization. Don't believe me? Then watch this video:

Vimeo: http://vimeo.com/55980866

Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8Lam9V_9tE